Revs searching for league success against Union

Soccer Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England has won four straight games without allowing a goal, but just one of those matches was in Major League Soccer. The Revolution hope to build on their SuperLiga success in league play Saturday at PPL Park against the expansion Philadelphia Union.

New England won all three of its SuperLiga group games, 1-0, to advance to the semifinals. But in MLS, the Revolution (4-9-2) are even with the Union (4-8-2) in the Eastern Conference with just 14 points halfway through the season.

The Revs last played an MLS game on July 10 against the Los Angeles Galaxy and posted their most impressive win of the season, 2-0, over the league's overall leader.

New England had won just one of its previous 11 MLS matches before the victory over L.A., and were shutout seven times during that stretch. New England's win over the Galaxy was just its third shutout of the season, but it sparked a run in SuperLiga play.

Central defender Darrius Barnes returned from a right foot injury against L.A. and has played a major role in the team's turnaround. Barnes was paired in the middle with Emmanuel Osei, and veteran goalie Matt Reis posted his first clean sheet of the season against L.A.

Following the L.A. win, New England topped Mexico's Pumas and Morelia, and the Chicago Fire, in SuperLiga group play with those three anchoring the team.

"The main thing - just organization and keeping our shape. If we get everybody in the right shape and everybody in the right spots," Barnes said on the Revs' website, "we're going to be successful.

"We have something good going on right now. We're playing well, we've put a little winning streak together, and hopefully we can continue to build on that."

New England will have to find a way to win on the road to continue its streak, as it has lost six of its seven road matches in MLS.

Philadelphia has built its success at home, earning 10 of its 14 points at PPL Park or Lincoln Financial Field. The Union won their last game against Toronto FC on July 17, and traded for midfielder Justin Mapp from Chicago this week.

Mapp, a 25-year-old with nine years of MLS experience, will add another cog to the young Union, who have just one loss in their last four matches. Sebastien Le Toux, who has a team-high seven goals, could benefit from Mapp's addition.

Le Toux started for the MLS All-Stars on Wednesday in a 5-2 loss to Manchester United. Mapp is a former MLS Best XI and has 36 career assists. Mapp admitted he was a little surprised by the trade, but is ready for a new challenge.

"It's a little bittersweet," Mapp said. "I'm excited to be here though, and very optimistic, so I'm looking forward to it."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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