Cuba edges U.S. in thrilling quarterfinal

Baseball Betting Lines

07/31/2010 - Thunder Bay, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a dramatic quarterfinal matchup, one can only imagine what else is in store for the final weekend of the World Junior Baseball Championship.

Omar Luis threw nine solid innings in a gutsy 144-pitch effort to shutdown a dangerous United States lineup as Cuba held on for the 3-2 victory in a thrilling game featuring two of baseball's biggest powerhouse nations.

"This was fun to watch, the fans brought some excitement here," said U.S. hitting coach Brian McRae. "Anytime Cuba and United States play it's going to be a good ballgame and today was no different."

"I was glad to be a part of it."

Luis (2-0) battled through a shaky ninth to hold on for the victory, earning Cuba a date in the semifinals versus Australia.

The Cuban lefty, who threw 137 pitches against Canada earlier in the tournament, turned in another captivating performance in front of a sell-out crowd at Port Arthur Stadium.

"He's got a rubber arm and he just battles," said U.S. outfielder Michael Lorenzen. "Good for him, I'm proud of him."

Lazaro Hernandez' ninth-inning triple off lefthanded reliever Philip Pfeifer (0-1) to score pinch runner Lazaro Ramirez gave the Cubans a 3-2 lead that proved to be the difference.

"We worked hard for this game; this game was very important," said Luis. "We are happy and we are ready to go straight ahead to the championship."

Lorenzen's two-out double in the bottom of the ninth gave the U.S. new life and kept fans riveted on the edge of their seat.

After hitting second baseman Tony Wolters in the back of the head to put the winning run on first, Luis gave up a single to shortstop Francisco Lindor to load the bases and set the stage for a dramatic ending.

But in a game with several twists and turns, the ending proved anti-climatic.

Marcus Littlewood grounded into a game-ending fielder's choice to hand the Cubans the win and send the Americans, who went 5-0 during group play, home earlier than anticipated.

"It's disappointing because you don't want to spend five weeks getting ready for this and all the work you put into it and not reach your goal," said McRae. "Our goal was to get to the gold medal game and hopefully win a gold medal.

"That didn't happen and it's frustrating but this was an awesome ballgame."

In control for long stretches of the game, Luis used a deceptive delivery and a breaking ball with late movement to keep a strong U.S. attack off balance. At one point retiring 11 straight U.S. batters, Luis gave the Cubans the marquee performance they needed to knock off a star-studded American roster.

And yet despite allowing 10 hits while walking a pair with five strikeouts, Luis' warrior-type performance will be remembered for years to come.

"We had them on the ropes and we couldn't take advantage," said McRae. "He was able to wiggle himself out of some jams and when we started to mount a little bit, he seemed like he could make a pitch and do something to keep us from inflicting some damage on him. He did a good job."

As did his counterpart, U.S. starter A.J. Vanegas.

The 6'3" righthander was lights out against a menacing Cuban lineup, locating a live fastball with a dipping curveball on his way to 13 strikeouts while allowing just five hits and two runs over eight innings.

"A.J. was outstanding," said McRae. "We had the right guy on the mound and we just weren't able to get the big hits."

That ended up being the difference, as Guillermo Aviles' first-inning, home run and back-to-back Cuban doubles in the fourth were the only blemishes in an otherwise terrific outing by one of the Americans' top young arms.

"It's bittersweet but it's just a blessing to be out here," said Vanegas following the devastating loss. "Our team just came short today and it happens in baseball. We gave it our all. We were down to our last strike and I'm just so proud of my teammates that they battled their hearts out."

"It's just a blessing to play the game."

With Cuba leading for most of the game, the U.S. tied it up at two in the eighth, after second baseman Yamil Rivalta was unable to corral a hard hit ball from Bubba Starling that scored Wolters.

But after steamrolling through group play and drawing a tough opening round opponent, all the U.S. can do now is think what could have been.

Lorenzen brought his top game today as he has all week, going 3-for-4 with a run batted in to bring his tournament total to 12-for-17 with eight RBI before consolation play.

"We've learned a lot on this trip and we've learned a lot about ourselves," said Lorenzen. "Nobody likes to lose, especially in a game like this. I don't think anyone fell short...they just came out on top."

GAME NOTES

Lindor went 1-for-5 today, giving him 12 hits on the tournament, which is tied for tops among the Americans with Lorenzen...Aviles' home run was his second of the tournament and the hit increased his team-leading total to nine.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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